THE AFWAH FACTOR
The Afwah occupy a unique position in the anthropological history of the Auliyahan clan. This sub-clan's unique trait lies in its birth. The Afwah is the son of the Abokor (paternal half brother to the Ali and the Kassim) and is also the maternal half brother of the Afgab and the Adhenkheir(The Afwah, Afgab and the Adhenkheir are referred to as the Bah Gatsan-in reference to their mother who hailed from the Gatsan clan.)

This double-edged blood relations with four sub-clans out of the total nine with two sub-clans on each side of the gender divide gives the Afwah a rare advantage over the other competing sub-clans when it comes to the politics of comradeship!

Territorial.
The Afwah's geographical estate is not as big as the ones of the Rer Alis and the Rer Afgabs but this does not mean that they lack Territorial ground-on the contrary, they inhabit large tracts of land in both Somalia and in Lagdera.

In Somalia, they are the second sub-clan with the largest geo-demographic density after the Rer Ali's who are the majority. From Salagle to Bualle to Mudhule, the Afwahs have a respectable representation in the geographical stakes of the Auliyahan territory in Somalia.

In Lagdera, the Afwahs have their geo-demographic base in Shantabagh division. One remarkable thing about their geographical density is the existence of several Afwah diaspora camps in key settlements within the Lagdera district.

A rough estimate of the geo-demographic saturation of this sub-clan reveals the following statistics;

Center % of total population

Goriale-------------------------------------------------------90
Baraki--------------------------------------------------------99
Gurufa-------------------------------------------------------99
Modogashe---------------------------------------------------20
Dadaab-------------------------------------------------------15
Liboi---------------------------------------------------------15
Damajalle----------------------------------------------------20
Kulan--------------------------------------------------------5

Electoral mechanics

In the history of the Lagdera elections, the Afwahs have the distinction of having occupied the Lagdera seat thrice since the constituency was curved out. The other members of the G4 can only boast of one entry each in the sub-clan MP registry!.

This electoral superiority lies not in their demographics, not even in their wealth but in an electoral hypothesis I fondly refer to as the 'TRIANGULAR THESIS'!. This triangular thesis as the name suggests is made up of a three sided philosophy and can be clearly understood in the following angular classifications;

1. Angle 1. 'The double edged advantage'-remember paragraph two?-this is where they the Afwahs enjoy the largest share of the inter-Jibrail (The Jibrail is the larger of the two Auliyahan branches the other being the Turaate. Six of the nine sub-clans of this clan belong to this branch. On top of that the Jibrails boast of having three-quarter of the G4 membership subscribing to its ethnic domain) electoral sympathy since both of his maternal
half brothers-the Afgabs and the Adhenkheirs not contesting gives him the ethnic advantage of the other competing members of the G4.

2. Angle 2. 'The diaspora margin'. Lagdera constituency has four principal centers of electoral clout namely; Modogashe, Shantabagh, Dadaab and Liboi. The Afwahs have a significant minority in each of these three centers (Shantabagh is excluded since it is the electoral Mecca of the Afwahs) and this significant minorities in these election-crucial principalities gives the Afwahs considerable stamina to propagate their political ideals thus shaping their electoral stakes come election time.

3. Angle 3. Voting patterns. A closer analysis of the Afwah voting patterns in the last parliamentary elections reveals a picture similar to that of the Kikuyus in Central province. In every electoral campaign, there are two very crucial determinants-the number of registered voters and the percentage of these voters who actually vote come the elections. The difference between these two voting parameters is what constitutes the voter saturation index (VSI), the smaller the margin between the two the healthier the electoral campaign.

Using the philosophy of the VSI, the Afwahs have had the least margins thus giving them the extra edge over the other competing members of the G4.

Conclusion.
The above analysis makes the Afwahs the prodigal sons of Lagdera politics. The only electoral inhibition this sub-clan might face during this coming elections is the perception of a growing number of the Auliyahan elites who feel that with the new district, the people of Lagdera need an aggitative, firm and resolute leadership that will ensure Lagdera maintains its territorial boarders and a fair share of the national resource.

It is on this basis that these elites who represent a fraction of the Auliyahan intelligentsia assert that the current leadership might be lacking these qualities thus giving the sub-clan's electoral computation a rather discomforting feeling.

THE RER AFGAB FACTOR

This is the second chapter of an ethno-political profile on the sub-clan dynamics in the electoral politics of Lagdera. As the title suggests, this chapter tries to configure the genesis of the Rer Afgab standing in the coming parliamentary elections.

This sub clan is undoubtedly the largest in the Auliyahan clan. It enjoys a rich historical legacy that criss -crosses the boarders of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. One of the most famous incidents in their history is the battle that took place between the Farah Samatar-a highly populous fraction of the Afgabs and the then Ethiopian empire in which they the Farah Samatars won not only the battle but also self autonomy from the Menelik empire!

The Afgabs inhabit vast lands stretching from the Zone Afder (a zone in Ogadenia-a region in the south east of Ethiopia) to plains in middle Juba of Somalia to areas within the Lagdera district.

A localized geo-demographic evaluation of the Afgabs reveals the following statistics;

CENTER % OF TOTAL POPULATION
1. Damajalle--------------------------------------60
2. Saredho---------------------------------------90
3. Abakhaile-------------------------------------99
4. Mathahgesi-----------------------------------90
5. Afweine---------------------------------------80
6. Dertu-----------------------------------------60
7. Dadaab---------------------------------------25
8. Liboi--------------------------------- --------10

With this numerical strength, the Afgabs unfortunately do not own a division in the Lagdera district! this anomaly of having a substantial population in one hand and the absence of an established administrational base on the other is what I classify as the Afgab paradox!

Upon a systematic evaluation of this geo-political paradox-one would have an inference into a co-relation between this sub-clan's paradox and the lack of an electoral strategy within the greater Auliyahan clan who also enjoy huge geographical stakes in three constituencies (Lagdera, Dujis and Fafi) but miss out when it comes to the sharing of resources in both Dujis and Fafi.

The Electoral Mechanics.

As of the last parliamentary elections, this sub-clan voted on several fronts-a condition which might be explained by the lack of an administrative base which is very crucial for voting patterns during elections. One fact which most observers of Lagdera politics agree in unison is that two thirds of the total votes of this sub-clan in the last parliamentary elections went to Abdullahi Sheikh Dahir thus ensuring his ascension to the Lagdera seat.

As of this election year, the turbulence in the politics of this region is so high that an accurate analysis of this sub-clan's electoral calculations might not be very feasible. However, after a series of political meetings, and using the inter-Afgab political leanings, one gets the picture that those voters of this sub-clan along the Garissa-Dadaab-Liboi road will vote for Farah Maalim (a former MP and a serious contender for the 2007 elections) and those along the Garissa-Afweine-Modogashe road will vote for the incumbent-Abdulaahi S. Dahir.

One undisputed fact that all the pretenders to the Lagdera seat know is that the Afgabs are not just members of the G4 of Lagdera and whoever they back will surely be crowned the new prince of Lagdera come January 2008.

One clever strategy that the Afgabs employ in their electoral calculations is what I describe as the 'Lagdera reserve vote'!-you see they being a formidable electoral force within the inter-sub-clan computations do not show case their own candidate-and with the other members of the G4 namely; the Rer Alis, the Rer Afwahs and the Rer Haawis each parading their own sons for the Lagdera seat, they will each be forced to bargain with the Rer Afgabs for their votes and they not contesting makes their vote the swinging vote of Lagdera politics!.

It is this clever strategy that has seen the Afgabs not spend their sub-clan's resources campaigning for the Lagdera seat but still enjoying more than their fair share of the Lagdera cake!.

Conclusion.
With the ever changing face of the Lagdera electoral politics, we need to be on the look-out for new intrusions that might alter the balance of power in this region. Whatever the outcome of this electoral metamorphosis, be sure to watch this space for an in-depth evaluation of the electoral stakes for the 2007 elections.

THE RER ALI FACTOR IN LAGDERA POLITICS

The Rer Ali's are the single sub clan within the Lagdera electoral community that has the largest share of registerd voters! and surprisingly this is not a secret!.

From Benane to Gilbagabo to the famous Ramaa Guta, this sub clan posesses huge tracts of land and in fact it is the only sub clan that can boast of owning two divisions in the newly created Lagdera district out of a total of five!

The other undisputed fact is that this same clan has had the highest frequency of inter-clan vettings where several candidates place their applications to the council of elders. The council of elders after thorough scrutiny of the candidate's political mileage, popularity with other clans, financial strength and several other factors determine who shall carry the sub-clan's flag to the general elections where he( the winner) competes with other contenders for the Lagdera throne.

As of this election year-there are three aspirants who are to be vetted by the council of elders. It is this pre-election vetting process which has contributed to the eventual downfall of the Rer Ali claim to the Lagdera throne

2007 ELECTION

Have you wondered how vibrant our potential MPs suddenly become when we reach election time?. They drive in their pajeros rushing for some phillanthropic gestures ! only to win for themselves much needed publicity We the citizens of Lagdera happily applaud their populist gestures and forget that these political specimens are out to lure us to vote for them and immediately forget us once they political specimens are out to lure us to vote for them and immediately forget us once they

Lagdera is more than a political constituency!-nay it is more than a geo-political map created by parliement and approved by the Electoral Commission of Kenya-it is infact a piece of God's land that embodies the social, cultural and political ideals of a section of God's people. Though the people of Lagdera have emigrated from this most cherished area, they the Lagderans have the area in their heart and mind.

My advice to my fellow Lagderans is to view Lagdera politics with a lot of caution! We must separate our common ideals for the betterment of our area from our selfish clannistic prejudices and think objectively for the common good of the hundred of thousands of men, women and children who call this beautiful piece of geography-their Lagdera!.